SPE Online Education
How Do We Quantify Subsurface Uncertainty and Reduce It?
Includes a Live Event on 10/02/2019 at 9:30 AM (EDT)
All subsurface models derived from seismic and offset well data have uncertainties inherent in the data even after all possible steps have been taken to process the data to maximize the accuracy. There is, however, one more step that could be taken – to quantify the remaining uncertainty. This is a relatively new technology that has value in exploration and drilling. For drilling applications this means a statistical 3D earth model at the well location instead of a fixed, deterministic one.
The drilling marker positions (depths) are represented as the best estimate plus an uncertainty distribution, for example 10% - 90% probability window, around it. Similarly pore pressure estimates, derived from velocities, come with confidence bounds. Statistical subsurface enables better well plans and contingencies before the spud and better decision making while drilling.
Dr. Cengiz Esmersoy
Technology Advisor, Schlumberger
Dr. Esmersoy is a Technology Advisor with Schlumberger in the areas of geophysics, drilling, logging, and integrated solutions. He has a large number of publications and received Hart's E&P Meritorious Award for Engineering Innovation (twice), OTC Spotlight on Technology Award (twice), the SEG Best Paper at The Leading Edge award, and a number of company recognitions including the Performed by Schlumberger Chairman's Award. Cengiz has a Ph.D. from M.I.T. and has been active with SEG, SPE, EAGE, and SPWLA, serving in many committees and organizing events. He has been the GEOPHYSICS Associate Editor and the Chairman of the SEG Research Committee.
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